There seems to be much pondering over this question in recent weeks. Though it is generally accepted that 2 or more consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth constitutes a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research is the true arbiter of such matters. There has been speculation that the economy will skit this definition, with the 1st and 3rd quarters exhibiting negative growth, while the massive economic stimulus bill will temporarily fuel enough consumer spending to prop up the 2nd quarter’s numbers.

A number of key reports are set to be released this week. The Commerce Department’s report on monthly retail sales will be watched closely on the 14th, as February’s number indicated a 0.6% drop. The Labor Department’s monthly inflation report will be released on the 16th, with economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted that prices will have risen 0.6%.

Though the Fed has been extremely aggressive in cutting interest rates, many borrowing costs have increased as banks have been cautious in exposing their capital. This has lessened the effectiveness of the Fed’s moves to stimulate spending. Furthermore, the average consumer has had to contend with the dual pains of increasing costs of necessary goods and slowing income. The latest results of a survey of consumer sentiment by Reuters/ University of Michigan underscores this negative outlook as the index fell to its lowest level in 26 years. It is abundantly clear that the rise in energy prices and inflation, decline in employment, and lingering housing crisis have each contributed to a slowing economy.